A book of con-sequence

Book Review:

Maria Konnikova, "The Confidence Game: The Psychology of the Con and Why We Fall for It Every Time", Canongate, 2016.

When you find a book with an epigraph like this:

How cheerfully he seems to grin,
How neatly spreads his claws,
And welcomes little fishes in
With gently smiling jaws!
-- Lewis Carroll, "Alice's Adventures in Wonderland"

...then you know it's going to be a cynical one. Over the past week-and-a-half, I've been reading this book by Maria Konnikova about con artists, scams, fraud and other forms of deception. And indeed, the author does seem cynical: she writes in the introduction that "Given the right cues, we're willing to go along with just about anything and put our confidence in just about anyone."

The confidence game is at its core a game of storytelling; one in which we find ourselves complicit because we want to believe -- to believe in justice, fairness, meaning and certainty, and to believe that the confidence artist can help us get what we desire. But that rarely works out in our favor, because the con artist manipulates our beliefs and perceptions of reality. And they often get away with it, because we are so reluctant to admit that our basic beliefs are wrong. We also feel like we deserve whatever good fortune has befallen us, hence why cons happen only to other people -- not us. As Konnikova notes: "Despite our deep certainty in our own immunity -- or, rather, because of it -- we all fall for it."

The con is arguably the oldest profession. The human need for making sense of the world and our place in it, and to believe in a grand story of purpose, has been exploited for centuries by religious cults. These cults lure in victims by appealing to their sense of goodness and offering loving support (at least initially). Eventually, people become so immersed in an alternate reality that they will ignore clear evidence that they are being bilked. The same pattern is at play in every confidence trick (albeit in less extreme form). The best way to resist them is to have "a strong, unshakeable, even, sense of self" (chapter 10). And since cons manipulate our emotions, it's important to remain logical and pay attention to the objective, physical details. Gather knowledge about types of cons and their methods. Finally, set limits that you won't cross. Yet despite these precautions, there is no foolproof way to avoid getting conned. Lest we live a miserable life, we must be open to some degree of belief.

***

Konnikova begins her exposition by discussing the traits of the grifter (i.e. the con artist) and the mark (i.e. the victim). The typical swindler is nonchalant or even psychopathic: they lack empathy and remorse. They are also have a sense of grandiosity (narcissism) and are skilled manipulators (Machiavellianism). The trio of psychopathy, narcissism and Machiavellianism is known as the "dark triad" in psychology. However, these traits only lead to criminality if there is also an opportunity and plausible rationale to con. Common rationales include competitive conditions, organizational or cultural norms, wanting to hide bad news, and a sense of victimhood. Unfortunately, the line between fraud and legitimate business can be thin in some cases, as with politicians, lawyers, marketers, advertisers, salespeople, realtors and even journalists -- these professionals are adept at stretching the truth, and empirical research shows that we are worse at detecting lies than we think we are. Konnikova writes:

"We want liars to exhibit signs of discomfort, like fidgeting, hemming and hawing, being inconsistent, flushing. We want liars to avert their gaze. They should feel shame and want to hide. ... But that desire is not grounded in what liars actually do."

The evolutionary reason for why we are bad at spotting deception is probably because it's more beneficial for us to be trusting. Ironically, those who trust more are more likely to become the mark in a confidence game. Even educated and intelligent people can get fooled, because being in vulnerable circumstances (e.g. divorce, unemployment, serious injury, debt etc.) can make us more likely to take risks and lower our "deception radars". Nonetheless, anybody -- even a confidence artist! -- can be a victim, especially those who think themselves immune. When we feel protected, we let down our guards. So it seems that both the vulnerable and the protected are targets.

The next eight chapters (ch. 2 to 9) are organized according to the steps of the confidence game: the put-up, the play, the rope, the tale, the convincer, the breakdown, the send and touch, and the blow-off and fix. In each chapter, Konnikova intersperses psychological research with a journalistic account of various con stories. The result is that reading the book feels like jumping back and forth between the story and the explanation of why it happened -- except that there are multiple stories mixed together, which can sometimes be confusing (as other reviewers of this book have noted). Sometimes, the author takes a lot of time to make a straightforward point. Although the book is longer than it could have been, at least the content is interesting. Key takeaways from the aforementioned chapters are as follows:

1. The put-up: the confidence artist identifies his/her victim and the victim's desires. Before acting, the con artist first observes and profiles to find the perfect mark at that moment. This involves the skill of perceiving, in great detail, the background and psychology of people without their knowledge. People give away a lot by their gestures, gait, facial expressions, tone of voice, etc. But people are often also willing to tell you about themselves if you show similarity and familiarity, and use Dale Carnegie's advice of trying to see things from their point of view and talking in terms of their interests. A brief conversation can make it more likely that you'll trust someone later on, due to the mere exposure effect. Once the con artist learns the mark's vulnerabilities, fears and hopes, it becomes easier to grab their confidence.
2. The play: empathy and rapport is built as the foundation for the confidence game. The victim is hooked as the con artist appeals to their base emotions. Research indicates that we form emotional impressions very quickly -- before rational understanding -- and that these impressions are hard to shake. The pressure of immediate action adds to the emotional force, as do stories. Stories grab our attention, which allows the con artist to plant ideas in our minds. A good story will also make us feel like we are good human beings, which makes it harder to debate. Sweeping narrative trumps logic. A common emotional pattern is to create a sense of fear and then the feeling of relief. 
3. The rope: the game is set in motion using persuasion -- by giving the mark reasons to approach it and decreasing reasons to avoid it. The con artist doesn't use coercion; rather, they use soft power in the forms of reward, authority and affiliation. People tend to obey authority (as shown by Milgram's experiments), and people want to affiliate with members of a group that they'd like to join or feel accepted by. Power can also derive from the framing of the proposition (e.g. the primacy effect, anchoring, position effects, nudges etc.). Often, con artists will tell you to "imagine the benefits" in order to plant a suggestion. They might also place you under high cognitive load, so that your brain is more likely to do what it wants instead of what it should.
4. The tale: a scheme is proposed. The mark is told how they will personally benefit; this works exactly because people are eager to believe that they will personally benefit. People tend to view themselves as exceptional, not as dupes. Hence, the successful con gets the victim to believe that it was their own idea.The tale focuses on the mark's positive talents, to the point where the mark no longer evaluates the evidence objectively. Despite this, people will still think that they are being rational, and thus fail to notice what is going on.
5. The convincer: the artist explains how the scheme will work to the victim's benefit, and shows actual profits. The convincer makes the mark feel like he or she is winning -- and thanks to optimism, the mark doesn't anticipate the bubble bursting. The upshot is that the victim dedicates themselves even more to the scheme. Nobody wants to walk away from a chance of winning and regret it. As Konnikova writes, "just a little more of the same, and our initial confidence, trust, and judgment will be completely verified."
6. The breakdown: the victim becomes more invested and stuck even as they struggle. At this point, the victim starts to lose. However, instead of cutting their losses, the mark often doubles down. Once again, the con artist uses storytelling to distort the objective evidence and make the victim believe even more strongly in the fiction. For example, losing money gets explained away as a mere fluke or bad luck, and the loss is to be overcome by... investing more money.
7. The send and the touch: things turn south to the point where the victim is completely fleeced without realizing what hit them. The send is when the victim recommits increasingly more time and resources to the scheme (because they refuse to admit that they could have been wrong), and the touch is when the con finally reaches its fruition. In hindsight, it seems like we should have known, but the send and touch makes us blind to the warning signs. The sunk cost fallacy and the endowment effect cause people to justify their past actions and beliefs.
8. The blow-off and the fix: the con artist convinces the victim to stay quiet, but more often the victim does it themselves. After the touch, the grifter wants to get out as fast as possible. This can go smoothly if the victim stays quiet due to concern about their reputation (the blow-off), but sometimes the con artist has to take extra steps to prevent the involvement of law enforcement (the fix). We don't want others to see us as the type of gullible person who would fall for a scam. Thus, the fix is rarely needed.

So, the sequence of the confidence game (note the pun in the title of this post) appears to be: scope out the fears and desires of your target --> build an emotional connection with them --> apply the tricks of persuasion --> make the target feel exceptional and lucky --> show some actual payoff to convince them --> explain away any initial losses --> grab as much as you can --> exit and keep things under cover.

In-between the psychological studies, the book presents a recurrent cast of characters. Some of the interesting stories include:

• Glafira Rosales, who sold dozens of fake Abstract Expressionist paintings over the course of twenty years via the Knoedler Gallery in Manhattan.
• Samantha Azzopardi, an Australian girl who pretended to be the victim of human trafficking in Dublin (in addition to illegally collecting social welfare benefits).
• Matthew Edward [de Unger] Brown, who posed as a member of the German aristocracy in order to get a job and money from Mervyn Barrett (a candidate for police commissioner in Lincolnshire).
• Ferdinand Waldo Demara Jr., who had a history of impersonating various people including doctors, professors, monks, prison wardens and many others -- earning him the title of "The Great Impostor".
• Oscar Hartzell, a salesman who conned investors out of millions by promising to find the lost treasure of Sir Francis Drake.
• William Franklin Miller, who in 1889 perpetrated what was perhaps the first modern Ponzi scheme.
• Sylvia Mitchell, a mystic known as "Zena the Clairvoyant", who performed psychic readings (among other things) for hefty prices -- and disappeared when victims asked for their money back.
• J. B. Stetson, who used a "lost wallet" trick to lure in investors with promise of big winnings from speculating on the stock market (by pretending to be a financial wizard). Of course, Stetson's plan was to depart with the money.

Maria Konnikova ends the book with the following paragraph:

"Ultimately, what a confidence artist sells is hope. Hope that you'll be happier, healthier, richer, loved, accepted, better looking, younger, smarter, a deeper, more fulfilled human being -- hope that the you that will emerge on the other side will be somehow superior to the you that came in."

***

So, is this a good book? Well, I give it 4/5 stars on the basis that the book is well-researched and informative: it explains the relevant psychological research (although the relevance is sometimes tangential) in combination with real-life examples of confidence games. However, it misses out on a full score because (i) it can be repetitive and verbose at times; (ii) the structure is confusing and requires the reader to remember the details of various stories for a lengthy amount of time; (iii) the lack of tables, graphics, or even sub-headings can make the book feel like a wall of text; and (iv) while the content is generally interesting, there is nothing really "groundbreaking" or world-view changing, especially if you are already familiar with the research on cognitive heuristics and biases or Cialdini's principles of influence.

Nevertheless, The Confidence Game may be worth reading if only to scare you awake at how easy it is for someone to fake their way into powerful positions or to run off with your money; and perhaps by learning to recognize their ways, you might be slightly less vulnerable to being hijacked by cons.