31 Talebian Meditations, Part 1
Book Review:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, "The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms", Penguin Books, 2016.
Today's post will be a bit different, since I'm writing about a unique book, The Bed of Procrustes. Unlike previous books by the author (see Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan), this one is a short (fewer than 160 pages) "addendum" to the Incerto consisting of various collected aphorisms. These poetic sayings, maxims or proverbs compress the author's ideas into a sentence or two, in a "show of bravado" (the author's own words). As Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains in the Postface:
"You never have to explain an aphorism -- like poetry, this is something that the reader needs to deal with by himself. [...] Aphorisms require us to change our reading habits and approach them in small doses; each one of them is a complete unit, a complete narrative dissociated from others." (pp. 154-155).Nevertheless, there is a unifying theme to these aphorisms: they are about "Procrustean beds", hence the title. As Taleb explains at the start of the book, Procrustes was a figure in Greek mythology who abducted travelers to his estate and offered them generous dinners, only to hack off their legs if they were too tall to perfectly fit into his special bed, and stretched them if they were too short. As a metaphor, it refers to our tendency to fix the "person" rather than the "bed". We squeeze the world
"... into crisp commoditized ideas, reductive categories, specific vocabularies, and prepackaged narratives, which, on the occasion, has explosive consequences." (p. x)In other words, The Bed of Procrustes is about how we humans deal with the unseen and unknown, often by scorning the abstract. To use a different metaphor (which will be familiar to visitors of LessWrong), some people will insist that the territory fits their map, rather than practice epistemic humility. For Taleb, Procrustean beds are everywhere: ADHD medication, top-down government regulations, high-rise office buildings, commutes, gyms, academia, involuntary relationships, and even employment. And in the information age, he claims, our delusions are only increasing.
The aphorisms in the book are sorted into "Preludes", "The End", and 20 chapters in-between, touching on a diverse range of topics. Although Taleb warns that "aphorisms lose their charm whenever explained" (p. x), I shall provide at least my interpretation of some of them, otherwise I don't have much to go on. I will stick to the author's recommendation, which is to select them randomly. So, here is the exercise:
- For each day in January, from the 1st to the 31st, I will pick one aphorism, and offer a reflection on it (hence the title of this post).
- The selection will be done by randomly generating a number between 3 and 148 inclusive (to choose the page), then generating a number between 1 and n (to choose which aphorism on the page to chew on; usually there are five per page, but not always). If this method does not find an aphorism, I will repeat it until it does. Ditto if the same one is selected.
- Afterwards I will finish reading the book, and the remaining aphorisms won't go on my blog (sorry).
***
1. "Since Cato the Elder, a certain type of maturity has shown up when one starts blaming the new generation for "shallowness" and praising the previous one for its "values."" (p. 17)
To be honest, I don't know much about Cato the Elder, but after a brief web search it appears he was known for, among other things, having a strict moral code. The use of the word "maturity" above suggests that N.N. Taleb views Cato approvingly, but I'm not sure why he puts shallowness and values in scare quotes. Given what the author has written elsewhere about the beauty of age, I wouldn't be surprised if he dislikes Millennials. It is indeed an ancient tradition for the old to complain about the youth, but if they were always right we would expect the world to have gotten worse over time, which I'm not convinced is the case. Perhaps a counterargument is that the world has improved because the youth are typically not in power (and by the time they get there, they have learned); even so, the previous generation was once young too.
2. "It's much harder to write a book review for a book you've read than for a book you haven't read." (p. 67)
If you've read The Black Swan, you probably remember "Umberto Eco's antilibrary", in which the unread books are more valuable than the read ones. Taleb's point was that most people would focus on what they already know, rather than the unknown. I suspect that there is a connection to the aphorism above, because when one sticks to one's preconceived notions (about an author, a subject, a genre etc.) it can be relatively easy to judge a book, even if one hasn't read it, by placing it in the prefabricated box. Attacking straw men is easier than engaging with the author's actual arguments, which would require reading the book. And the actual book tends to be messier and more complex than the clean crisp concept you had in your mind. But there is another possible interpretation: in general, it is perhaps easier to make up stuff about the unknown than it is to lie, with conscience, about the known, or to utter an uncomfortable truth.
3. "If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry." (p. 21)
Taleb could be poking fun at social norms here. In most places you are not expected to cry in front of strangers; there is a kind of facade one puts on to reassure or please others, which is more acceptable (perhaps even desirable) to take down when among close friends or relatives. This asymmetry may be useful insofar as you don't want to be emotionally vulnerable to people you don't know or trust, but then again, most people aren't malevolent... plus, we are often hurt most by those close to us. In any case, I doubt that Taleb is advising the reader on how to manipulate people (though you never know).
4. "The only people who think that real world experience doesn't matter are those who never had real world experience." (p. 137)
It's safe to say that Taleb values practice more than theorizing, so this aphorism is partially a potshot at ivory tower academics and armchair philosophers. (Perhaps it can also be linked to the first aphorism about new and old generations.) At the same time, I think Taleb is also getting at a deeper point about how people struggle to account properly for the unknown and unseen in life. Often these forces get too little or too much credit, because people tend to take responsibility when things go right and deny responsibility when things go wrong (see: the self-serving bias). But even if you know that something is valuable, you may not be able to explain why in words. The ineffable can still be real and important (hence the prevalence of frustrating expressions like "you'll understand when you're older" and "you don't know what you're missing"). However, I worry that this might be used as a fully general excuse for people to give bad advice when they have no other justification, or promote an ideological agenda (e.g. discounting men's opinions of feminism since they lack the "lived experience" of women).
5. "It is difficult to stop the impulse to reveal secrets in conversation, as if information had the desire to live and the power to multiply." (p. 21)
On the first part of the sentence: I can identify somewhat with the impulse, although I think I've gotten better at keeping secrets over the years. It's interesting to ask where the impulse comes from; one obvious reason to reveal a secret is to "blow the whistle" -- to inform people about the misbehavior of others, out of a sense of rectitude. Another, if you're a gangster, is to "rat" on your confederates in order to receive leniency. But neither of these are part of everyday conversations. More commonly, we deal with gossip. Robin Hanson has written about gossip as a means to boost one's social status, enforce norms, and gather info. So, perhaps gossip is a kind of currency, which may explain its "desire to live and the power to multiply". The second part of the sentence is also reminiscent of Dawkins's meme, a cultural unit that occupies our brains as reproductive vehicles.
6. "Increasingly, people don't become academics because of intelligence, but rather because of a lower grasp of disorder." (p. 102)
Academics tend to prefer clean and simple theories over messy and complicated ones (one reason being Occam's Razor). And theories need to simplify reality to some extent in order to be useful. Of course, the risk is that your simplification overlooks some crucial aspect of the world -- corresponding to a Procrustean bed situation in Taleb's vocabulary. This risk is far greater in the social sciences than in the natural sciences, which is why our predictive track record there is so lame (although even some natural phenomena like earthquakes are hard to forecast). But I find it hard to believe that social scientists are blissfully unaware of this. Perhaps if someone applies a linear model in a chaotic domain and proudly proclaims it as The Truth, they're displaying a lack of intelligence and/or understanding of disorder... especially if they then argue for (potentially harmful) public policies based on it. However, it's not obvious that that is more likely (on a per capita basis) to happen today than, say, a century ago.
7. "The alpha person at a gathering of "high status" persons is often, detectably, the waiter." (p. 35)
Imagine a group of government officials or industry executives dining at a restaurant. At first glance, we might judge them as doing well in life; yet they might secretly yearn for the relatively simpler life of a waiter. Additionally, being in the position of welcoming guests and serving meals, the waiter is playing the "alpha" role of provider. We can also interpret the word "alpha" as referring to a collection of character traits, for example confidence, strength, looks, charm, popularity and so on. Taleb might be insinuating that the people typically regarded as "high status" (due to wealth, power, credentials etc.) actually score worse on the above traits than a typical waiter. Whether that's true or not, I think it's interesting to ask which of these metrics we should respect or admire more.
8. "The longest book I've ever read was 205 pages." (p. 57)
This is an odd one. I don't think Taleb is being literal here; he probably means that the longest book he has ever read had only 205 pages' worth of content. Does this mean that you rarely, if ever, need more than 205 pages to express a complete idea? Maybe, but unlikely (since Taleb himself frequently writes books with more pages). I couldn't help but notice an obvious connection to another aphorism on page 57 (take this as a bonus): "One of the shortest books I've ever read had 745 pages." Here, the reverse seems to be the case -- little content in a long book. So, book authors can be like Procrustes: either stretching the thesis/plot to fit the number of pages, or chopping something important off.
9. "One of the problems with social networks is that it is getting harder and harder for others to complain about you behind your back." (p. 140)
Social media has made certain discussions much more public, and even if you're part of a closed group it is still relatively easy to forward messages or share screenshots. On the one hand, this makes people a bit more careful about what they say online -- and perhaps this is what Taleb laments in the aphorism (hence the word "problem"). People are censoring themselves rather than expressing their true opinions, and this makes the interaction more "fake". On the other hand, some would argue that people are more honest online, since they don't feel the same anxiety/shame as in a face-to-face interaction. Further, the Net has allowed people with niche ideas to find and validate each other. So, I'm not sure to what extent Taleb is right about this one. But whether you're on a social network or not, the risk of others talking behind your back serves as an incentive to behave well.
10. "Stiglitz understands everything about economics except for tail risks, which is like knowing everything about flight safety except for crashes." (p. 126)
If you've read The Black Swan, you know Taleb's perspective: a disproportionate share of the "pain" or "gain" in the economic sphere comes from rare, unexpected and extreme events (Black Swans). Thus, he would argue, in order to understand the economy one must understand economic crashes. Why is he picking on Joseph Stiglitz in particular? Well, he discusses this in his book Antifragile, so you'll have to read my review of it (coming soon Update: see here). But briefly: around 2002 Stiglitz and colleagues said that Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac would not go bust -- which they did, in 2008.
To avoid this post getting too long, I have decided to split it into three parts. This was part one, and the next part will probably be out in less than two weeks from now. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, let's appreciate the beautiful cover of the Penguin edition.
Updated 20/01/2020: Part 2 is now online.
Updated 09/02/2020: Part 3 is now online, with my general conclusions. If you just want my assessment, you can skip part two and go straight to part three.
2. "It's much harder to write a book review for a book you've read than for a book you haven't read." (p. 67)
If you've read The Black Swan, you probably remember "Umberto Eco's antilibrary", in which the unread books are more valuable than the read ones. Taleb's point was that most people would focus on what they already know, rather than the unknown. I suspect that there is a connection to the aphorism above, because when one sticks to one's preconceived notions (about an author, a subject, a genre etc.) it can be relatively easy to judge a book, even if one hasn't read it, by placing it in the prefabricated box. Attacking straw men is easier than engaging with the author's actual arguments, which would require reading the book. And the actual book tends to be messier and more complex than the clean crisp concept you had in your mind. But there is another possible interpretation: in general, it is perhaps easier to make up stuff about the unknown than it is to lie, with conscience, about the known, or to utter an uncomfortable truth.
3. "If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry." (p. 21)
Taleb could be poking fun at social norms here. In most places you are not expected to cry in front of strangers; there is a kind of facade one puts on to reassure or please others, which is more acceptable (perhaps even desirable) to take down when among close friends or relatives. This asymmetry may be useful insofar as you don't want to be emotionally vulnerable to people you don't know or trust, but then again, most people aren't malevolent... plus, we are often hurt most by those close to us. In any case, I doubt that Taleb is advising the reader on how to manipulate people (though you never know).
4. "The only people who think that real world experience doesn't matter are those who never had real world experience." (p. 137)
It's safe to say that Taleb values practice more than theorizing, so this aphorism is partially a potshot at ivory tower academics and armchair philosophers. (Perhaps it can also be linked to the first aphorism about new and old generations.) At the same time, I think Taleb is also getting at a deeper point about how people struggle to account properly for the unknown and unseen in life. Often these forces get too little or too much credit, because people tend to take responsibility when things go right and deny responsibility when things go wrong (see: the self-serving bias). But even if you know that something is valuable, you may not be able to explain why in words. The ineffable can still be real and important (hence the prevalence of frustrating expressions like "you'll understand when you're older" and "you don't know what you're missing"). However, I worry that this might be used as a fully general excuse for people to give bad advice when they have no other justification, or promote an ideological agenda (e.g. discounting men's opinions of feminism since they lack the "lived experience" of women).
5. "It is difficult to stop the impulse to reveal secrets in conversation, as if information had the desire to live and the power to multiply." (p. 21)
On the first part of the sentence: I can identify somewhat with the impulse, although I think I've gotten better at keeping secrets over the years. It's interesting to ask where the impulse comes from; one obvious reason to reveal a secret is to "blow the whistle" -- to inform people about the misbehavior of others, out of a sense of rectitude. Another, if you're a gangster, is to "rat" on your confederates in order to receive leniency. But neither of these are part of everyday conversations. More commonly, we deal with gossip. Robin Hanson has written about gossip as a means to boost one's social status, enforce norms, and gather info. So, perhaps gossip is a kind of currency, which may explain its "desire to live and the power to multiply". The second part of the sentence is also reminiscent of Dawkins's meme, a cultural unit that occupies our brains as reproductive vehicles.
6. "Increasingly, people don't become academics because of intelligence, but rather because of a lower grasp of disorder." (p. 102)
Academics tend to prefer clean and simple theories over messy and complicated ones (one reason being Occam's Razor). And theories need to simplify reality to some extent in order to be useful. Of course, the risk is that your simplification overlooks some crucial aspect of the world -- corresponding to a Procrustean bed situation in Taleb's vocabulary. This risk is far greater in the social sciences than in the natural sciences, which is why our predictive track record there is so lame (although even some natural phenomena like earthquakes are hard to forecast). But I find it hard to believe that social scientists are blissfully unaware of this. Perhaps if someone applies a linear model in a chaotic domain and proudly proclaims it as The Truth, they're displaying a lack of intelligence and/or understanding of disorder... especially if they then argue for (potentially harmful) public policies based on it. However, it's not obvious that that is more likely (on a per capita basis) to happen today than, say, a century ago.
7. "The alpha person at a gathering of "high status" persons is often, detectably, the waiter." (p. 35)
Imagine a group of government officials or industry executives dining at a restaurant. At first glance, we might judge them as doing well in life; yet they might secretly yearn for the relatively simpler life of a waiter. Additionally, being in the position of welcoming guests and serving meals, the waiter is playing the "alpha" role of provider. We can also interpret the word "alpha" as referring to a collection of character traits, for example confidence, strength, looks, charm, popularity and so on. Taleb might be insinuating that the people typically regarded as "high status" (due to wealth, power, credentials etc.) actually score worse on the above traits than a typical waiter. Whether that's true or not, I think it's interesting to ask which of these metrics we should respect or admire more.
8. "The longest book I've ever read was 205 pages." (p. 57)
This is an odd one. I don't think Taleb is being literal here; he probably means that the longest book he has ever read had only 205 pages' worth of content. Does this mean that you rarely, if ever, need more than 205 pages to express a complete idea? Maybe, but unlikely (since Taleb himself frequently writes books with more pages). I couldn't help but notice an obvious connection to another aphorism on page 57 (take this as a bonus): "One of the shortest books I've ever read had 745 pages." Here, the reverse seems to be the case -- little content in a long book. So, book authors can be like Procrustes: either stretching the thesis/plot to fit the number of pages, or chopping something important off.
9. "One of the problems with social networks is that it is getting harder and harder for others to complain about you behind your back." (p. 140)
Social media has made certain discussions much more public, and even if you're part of a closed group it is still relatively easy to forward messages or share screenshots. On the one hand, this makes people a bit more careful about what they say online -- and perhaps this is what Taleb laments in the aphorism (hence the word "problem"). People are censoring themselves rather than expressing their true opinions, and this makes the interaction more "fake". On the other hand, some would argue that people are more honest online, since they don't feel the same anxiety/shame as in a face-to-face interaction. Further, the Net has allowed people with niche ideas to find and validate each other. So, I'm not sure to what extent Taleb is right about this one. But whether you're on a social network or not, the risk of others talking behind your back serves as an incentive to behave well.
10. "Stiglitz understands everything about economics except for tail risks, which is like knowing everything about flight safety except for crashes." (p. 126)
If you've read The Black Swan, you know Taleb's perspective: a disproportionate share of the "pain" or "gain" in the economic sphere comes from rare, unexpected and extreme events (Black Swans). Thus, he would argue, in order to understand the economy one must understand economic crashes. Why is he picking on Joseph Stiglitz in particular? Well, he discusses this in his book Antifragile, so you'll have to read my review of it (
***
To avoid this post getting too long, I have decided to split it into three parts. This was part one, and the next part will probably be out in less than two weeks from now. Stay tuned. Meanwhile, let's appreciate the beautiful cover of the Penguin edition.
Updated 20/01/2020: Part 2 is now online.
Updated 09/02/2020: Part 3 is now online, with my general conclusions. If you just want my assessment, you can skip part two and go straight to part three.
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